Water as an instrument of policy

[Меркурий]

Water Reservoirs as Armenia’s main factor of security

The development of high technology has been announced as the main priority in the development of the Armenian economy. In fact, if this program is fully implemented, Armenia could become a leader in this field in the region.

All prerequisites for this are already in place.

1. The abundant supply of an educated workforce compared with the rest of the region

2. The presence of active knowledge networks

3. The inclusion of local experts in international programs (3rd following Russian and Ukraine in the Union of Independent Republics)

4. Some corporations from Soviet times have still maintained their functionality

We must not overlook the fact that energy resources are an important factor for any production to take place.

One may ask why we are discussing this as we have an abundant supply of energy.

The use of electro energy will increase significantly along with the development of the economy. By 2014, the exploitation date of the Armenian Nuclear Power Station will expire. In my opinion, the right way to maintain the required levels of energy is the construction of hydro-electric power stations(HEPS). The water resources of Armenia allow for the construction of a few dozen such stations. It is estimated at 7.5 billion cubic meters, of which, we only use 2.5. In fact only Hrazdan’s and Vorotan’s resources are being used. Through the construction of hydroelectric power stations we will solve the problem of future energy deficits as well as have an energy surplus, which can be potentially sold to Armenia’s neighbours (Georgia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan have an energy deficiency, Middle Easter countries could also be future customers).

Naturally the presence of rivers is not enough for the construction of these hydroelectric power stations. Reservoirs are also necessary. Firstly we must reconstruct the old reservoirs, then finish construction that has already been started – such as Egvard – and finally construct brand new reservoirs on all rivers. This will make the construction of HEPSs easier. The construction of the reservoirs will not only aid the construction of HEPSs but will also solve a number of other problems, these are:

1. The Sevan question

With the construction of these reservoirs as well as the Vorotan – Arpa tunnel, the renovation of the Arpa – Sevan tunnel will resolve the Sevan question. Sevan is not only a natural wonder of Armenia, but a vast reservoir of fresh water, it also contains a wide variety of fish and can potentially become a tourist attraction for the region as well as solve the difficulties associated with the dry climate of Armenia. With the Arpa – Sevan project an additional 250million cubic meter of water will flow into the Sevan, however due to the poor condition of the tunnel this number is significantly reduced. If the above-mentioned two projects are implemented fully an additional 450million cubic meter of water will flow in the Sevan. This year a mere 98 million cubic meters of water from the Sevan was used, mainly for irrigation purposes.

With the completion of the Yeghvard reservoir, and the construction of ones on the Kasakh, Azat and the Vedi we can decrease significantly the outflow of water from the Sevan as well as the possibility of the ability to maintain the level of the water in the Sevan at a constant level.

2. Agricultural development

The reservoirs will irrigate the surrounding fields and orchards and even create new ones. Along with the development of agriculture a number of other strategic difficulties will be resolved. The population of Armenia will be guaranteed fresh agricultural produce, it will provide local farmers with adequate employment, which in turn will diminish the problem of urbanisation and decrease the present level of emigration.

With the development of agricultural processes Armenia will be in a position to export its agricultural produce such as eggs, fresh fruit and vegetables. The export of Brandy, beer, tobacco and wine will also increase.

3. Climate change

With the construction of these, the humidity in the air will increase, the result of which will be a milder climate. It will also allow for the re-growth and re-generation of the country’s forests.

For example, the regeneration of forests in Shirak plane is essential. This will change Shirak’s plane’s climate which is the harshest in Armenia, with temperatures reaching –40 /-45 cC. After the Ararat plane, Shirak is the second largest, however agricultural development is lagging behind in the region.

The lack of construction and the inefficient use of the hydropower resources could potentially result in increased competition from countries such as Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan. A certain amount of Armenia’s freshwater reserves are used to irrigate these countries’ agricultural produce, which is then exported into the Armenian market. Such reservoirs need to be constructed in Artsakh, as this region also struggles with similar difficulties.

With the construction of these reservoirs, the problems of fresh water will simultaneously be solved. It’s been forecasted, that in the next 20 years problems associated with the shortage of drinking water will be of paramount importance throughout the world. It will be necessary to ration and reserve fresh water supplies. Thus we could potentially export freshwater, which will be highly competitive on the international market due to its quality. Potential customers could well be countries in the Middle East and Iran. Potential countries that we would target would be those adjacent to Turkey and Israel, as these two countries are the main suppliers of fresh water. For example, with the realisation of the South Eastern Anatolian project, Iraq and Syria will be completely dependent on Turkey for their fresh water supply. This was in fact the main reason for the 1998 conflict. This escalated the tension between these countries when turkey cut off the fresh water supply of the Euphrates in order to fill the Ataturk reservoir. In turn, Syrian began to blatantly support certain Kurdish militant groups, in the hopes of putting pressure on Turkish water politics. The Turkish use of water to tip the balance of power in the region is incredibly effective as witnessed by the abrupt end to support of the Kurdish militant groups by Syria, the extradition of the Kurdish leader Osalan and other incidents.

The same was seen in the case of Israel, when it occupied the Golan Heights consequently taking control over the springs of the region. It is also believed, that the Israelis are building settlements near the spring, effectively making the Palestinians completely dependent on them for their freshwater supplies.

By exporting fresh water to these countries, Armenia will decrease their dependency on the Turkey and Israel and at the same time increase Armenia’s standing in these countries and consequently increasing it’s input in the policies of the two countries. Similarly, Armenia could export agricultural produce and electricity to these countries.

Thus the implementation of these programmes would solve numerous economic and political issues. The advantage of these programs is the fact that it is solely based on the effective use of Armenia’s internal resources consequently allowing Armenia to make certain political and economic decision.

24.11.2002

Tigran Haroutiunian

Translated by Anna Aghadjanyan

http://www.hayq.am/eng/geoec/news_detail.asp?id=22