Security of South Caucasus & Baku-Jeyhan

[Меркурий]

Baku – Jeyhan and Other Regional Developments

There have been numerous discussions about the Baku-Jeyhan pipeline. After the events of September 11 these discussions have taken a more impetuous form. This pipeline is considered “alternative transportation”. Before the events of September 11th it his was considered to be an alternative to Russian oil, however, it has now become evident that it is for middle eastern, namely Saudi Arabian oil.

With the imminent construction of the new pipeline and the exploitation of the Russian oil the US now has a “free reign” in the Middle East and it can take a stronger stance on the Arabic world. Now more than ever there is an apparent need for this stronger stance as it has become common knowledge that the main source of finance for international terrorism is in fact Saudi Arabia.

The construction of the afore mentioned pipeline would seem an impossible task to many. There were and still are a number of reasons for this. The most prevailing of which is the continuous conflicts that are rampant in the region. It goes without saying that the pipeline would be very unlikely to be constructed in a region such as this as the safety of said pipeline cannot be guaranteed. However, construction on the project has already begun.

Which begs the question; does America have more money than sense?

Of course not, they have already begun the process of ensuring the safety of the pipeline as well as the safety of all forms of communication in the region.

According to preliminary plans, the pipeline will run through three nations, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, all three of these nations are in the midst of internal conflicts.

Let’s begin with Turkey; the Kurdish question (their wish to establish an autonomous region) is a crucial factor in assessing the situation in Turkey. The main concern here is the fact that the proposed pipeline will have to run through this conflict ridden Kurdish region and in the event of the slightest increase in the local tension could potentially result in the sabotage of the proposed pipeline. However, as the saying goes the Americans are trying to kill two birds with one stone. They have proposed to set up an autonomous region for Kurds within the current borders of Iraq, effectively dividing the country. By doing this they hope to convince the Kurdish population of Turkey to cease their campaigning for autonomy. From the point of view of the Kurds this is truly a gift that they are quite unlikely to refuse, if anything it will encourage them to campaign for more Turkish soil that they feel entitled to.

Another important aspect is the gradual increase in importance placed on the commencement of talks on reopening the borders between Armenia and Turkey. Although this is taking place solely in the eastern villayets which have borders with Armenia, and the increased intensity of the discussions seem to be evidence that the Turkish government is preparing the Turkish and Azerbaijani populations for the reopening of the borders. The United States government has not missed the opportunity to demand that Turkey open its borders with Armenia and commence diplomatic relation between the two countries.

This scenario will eliminate the threat posed by Turkey. However, as far as Georgia is concerned, the situation is much more complicated (with issues such as Abkhasia, South Osetia, Javakh, and of course the Pankizi Gorge which is heavily populated by Chechens).

In fact the government only controls Tbilisi and it’s surrounding regions. However, the Georgian people themselves are taking a colossal part in changing their own politics. This is evident from the recent incidents, such as:

1. Georgia has finally agreed to combine efforts with their Russian counterparts in guarding their borders. They have also promised to hand over 15 Chechen suspects, whom them have recently detained, to the appropriate Russian authorities.

2. The country has also taken a softer stance in the Abkhasian question. Georgia has agreed to begin negotiations, which up till now it had fervently refused to do so. Their attitude to the problems concerning Osetia has also been altered

3. They have finally decided to be more judicious in matter of governance in the Javakh region.

The recent state visits by different ranks of Georgian government ministers are a distinct example of this. They have finally realised that the Armenian question within Javakh must be resolved. If they fail to do this, the danger of losing Javakh may become a real possibility. In the event of losing Javakh,, they will consequently also lose control of Ajaria, effectively resulting in the cessation of the existence of Georgia as a nation.

The Georgian authorities have also decided to accept an offer of political and financial help from the Republic of Armenia. As well as attempts to find a common ground with the Armenians of Georgia they are also attempting to improve relationse with Armenia itself. Discussion on the re-opening of the railroad is becoming more intense and significantly more precise.

The Georgians have a number of condition, which must be met if they are to reopen the line, one of these are the return of refugees to Abkhasia.

As far as Azerbaijan is concerned, there have been a number of positive changes in recent times. There has been an interesting tendency within the Azerbaijani parliament in the last few months to give articles concerning the reopening of borders precedence over others.

Azerbaijan has offered to reopen the Baku-Nakhichevan-Yerevan line in exchange for the return of four regions (Fizulu, Jebriaili, Kubatli and Jangelani). The most interesting aspect of this proposition is that the Azeri government would never have been in a position to make such an announcement 12 months ago.

Of course it would be foolish on our part to accept this proposal without the agreed status of the Republic of Mountainous Karabakh (RMK). The Azeri government are attempting to offset their potential losses again the potential gains if the borders with Armenia are in fact reopened. In all the years of conflict they have never faced a dilemma of this sort.

In the present situation, they stand to gain a lot. Although Armenia has been isolated it has still found avenues of growth and success in the last number of years. Unfortunately the same cannot be said about Azerbaijan. For example, in the last 10 years the population of Nakhichevan has shrunk from 350 thousand to an estimated 80 thousand and the rate of emigration shows no sign of slowing down. If the boarders are reopened they have a real chance of getting back some of their occupied regions and will have the chance to save Nakhichevan. As far as Artsakh is concerned, they have nothing to lose as they lost it a long time ago and there are no realistic means of regaining this region in the near future.

There is one other reason for this. If the line is constructed, the ability of Azerbaijan to function completely independently will diminish. In this case we can assume that a resolution to the Artsakh conflict is a distinct possibility in the near future.

As we can now see, the future of the South Caucuses as well as any plans such as the construction of the Baku-Jeyhan line will remain on paper only unless significant changes are made. In such circumstances, it is imperative that the Armenian government and its representatives use these situations to their full advantage in order to ensure the best possible outcome for Armenia.

12.10.2002

Tigran Haroutiunian

Translated by Anna Aghadjanyan

http://www.hayq.am/eng/geo/news_detail.asp?id=25