армянские фондовые рынки

[Josef Gabcik]

Chinese stock exchanges, not only Shangai, were crashing several times in feb. None of it had serious consequences for world market. I think there were other factors at play when Dow fell on tue.

I don't think so.

Look at the diagramm, I compared here 3 Indices.

000001.SS - Shanghai Stocke Exchange Composite Index

HSI - Hang Seng Index

DJI - Dow Jones Index

Do you still think that chinese markets don't have influence on american stock exchanges?

Of course there are many another factors which can have influence on dow , but the situation on the world markets is the one of the most importants for the dow.

Edited March 3, 2007 by Josef Gabcik

[TSP]

The diagramm illustrates my point. Even as chinese indices jump up and down, DJW remains steady. Chinese stock markets are notoriously opaque and loosely regulated which makes them unsuitable for use as an investment guide. This is not to say that Chinese economy and it's health doesn't have an effect on DJW, so when there are drastic changes, like tightening of credit policy, then it is taken very seriosly. Whether this measure is timely and enough to prevent recession of Chinese economy remains to be seen. I will stay bearish for near term.

[Josef Gabcik]

Even as chinese indices jump up and down, DJW remains steady.

No. DJW is changing too, but the amplitude of the changings ist not so big like on the chinese indices. It's because of the many factors: sometimes some chinese markets are going up and another down, in this moments DJW is relatively constant (when we don't have some crashes on another stocks exchanges).

Secondly: DJW has now 14194.19 value that's much more than the values of chinese indices, and the changing of 10% could be more terrible for US, than the same changing on Shanghai Stocks Exchange . And because of the same reason the US markets can't develop so fast and powerful like the chinese. That's why the diagramm of DJ is changing so poor.

This is not to say that Chinese economy and it's health doesn't have an effect on DJW

Yeah. But the point is that they have more influance on US economy than another countrys .

I will stay bearish for near term.

What do u mean with the "near tearm"? 3; 6; 12 months? I think the chinese markets will grow up until the sommer , than they will go down until September or October, than again the powerful jump.

[TSP]

No. DJW is changing too, but the amplitude of the changings ist not so big like on the chinese indices. It's because of the many factors: sometimes some chinese markets are going up and another down, in this moments DJW is relatively constant (when we don't have some crashes on another stocks exchanges).

Secondly: DJW has now 14194.19 value that's much more than the values of chinese indices, and the changing of 10% could be more terrible for US, than the same changing on Shanghai Stocks Exchange . And because of the same reason the US markets can't develop so fast and powerful like the chinese. That's why the diagramm of DJ is changing so poor.

Yeah. But the point is that they have more influance on US economy than another countrys .

I meant to write DJI but somehow typed DJW and what I was trying to say is that Stock Markets don't always reflect real economic condition.

What do u mean with the "near tearm"? 3; 6; 12 months? I think the chinese markets will grow up until the sommer , than they will go down until September or October, than again the powerful jump.

I don't know man, this is crazy world. I don't really expect big changes within 3 months, but will keep an eye on markets, just in case.

[Josef Gabcik]

I meant to write DJI but somehow typed DJW

u know, i was searching so long for the index "DJW" , and i thought "what the f..." ??? :lol: the information that i got from the google, it didn't have any sence , i found so many indices ... it's because i am not investing in american papers...

now i practice in the stocks exchange simulator on faz.net (i don't have any money to use it for the investements... ) . There i have 2 deposits with the different papers from the german stocks exchange.

in the first one are the papers for the long term investements and in the second one for the short term...

Stock Markets don't always reflect real economic condition.

yes of course! i agree with u.

this is crazy world

yeah... the booms(crashes) on russian and chinise markets make it more hard to try to understand what's goin' on...

and what about u, are u investing? property, founds, stocks??

i have an friend from florida, he is telling me always about the boom on the property market in this part of US, he got about 200% or 300% of profit with his deposits... now he wants to start to buy some stocks, let's see what he will get in ...

[Josef Gabcik]

Пока мой оппонент бродит по просторам интернета и никак не может дойти то hayastan.com'a, опубликую промежуточные результаты с биржевого симулятора , на котором я пытаюсь с попеременным успехом спекулировать/инвестировать. С комментами.

Разделю свой отчет на 3 части.

1. Текущие вложения.

2. Нал.

3. Закрытые трансакционные сделки.

1. Текущие вложения

На данный момент у меня 2 портфеля: dejan_stankovic (для инвестирования) и ze_elias (для спекуляций).

В первом (станкович):

Allianz (страхование/ Германия) -5,98% ; убыток 301,60 € при вложении 4.833,43 €.

Deutsche Bank (банковская сфера/ Германия) -3,84%; убыток 103,50 € при вложении 3.109,50 €.

Deutsche Boerse (фондовый индекс/ Германия) +33,72%; прибыль 5.173,20 € при вложении 15.274,80 €.

Linde (химическая промышленность/ Германия) -0,2%; убыток 10,08 € при вложении 5.051,97 €.

Metro (розничная и мелкооптовая торговля/ Германия) +0,78% прибыль 23,10 € при вложении 2.972,20 €.

Muenchener Rueckversicherung (страхование/ Германия) +3,76% прибыль 178,40 € при вложении 4.740 €.

VW (автомобилестроение/ Германия) +17,50% прибыль 574,50 € при вложении 3.283,50 €.

Текущий баланс: + 5.534,02 €

Второй портфель (элиаш):

-пуст- 100% нал.

2. Нал

В первом (станкович):

6.046,61 €

Во втором (элиаш):

51.182,12 €

3. Закрытые трансакционные сделки.

В первом (станкович):

1. Muenchener Rueckversicherung ; спрэд -8,50% ; убыток 1.315,27 €.

2. Rao Gazprom; спрэд -15,28%; убыток 540,- €.

3. Rao Gazprom; спрэд -7,36%; убыток 1040,- €.

4. Surgutneftegaz; спрэд -13,19%; убыток 2220,- €.

Итого убыток по закрытым сделкам: 5115,27 €

Во втором (элиаш):

1. Bank of China; спрэд +4,52%; прибыль 160,00 €.

2. Hang Seng Bank; спрэд +2,16%; прибыль 68,20 €.

3. LUKoil; спрэд +0,08%; прибыль 2,50 €.

4. China Mobile; спрэд +1,01%; прибыль 35,00 €.

5. Bank of China; спрэд +1,15%; прибыль 34,00 €

Итого прибыль по закрытым сделкам: 299,70 €

вот.

Edited March 26, 2007 by Josef Gabcik

[Josef Gabcik]

Графики станковича и элиаша соответственно

[TSP]

I am investing a modest amount of savings in funds. I don't invest in stocks directly because don't have that much time to track situation on the markets. However I do follow business news and would like to think of myself as an educated customer of investment products.

Regarding florida property market I know only one case where such astronomical returns materialized. It happened when goverment started auctioning off some of its lands. They broke it down into small lots ans sold only to individuals and to that in limited numbers. So if you were lucky to take part in that auction you could buy a lot for $500. In 10 years that same lot was selling for $15,000. Note however, that the price rose sharply only during last years. Throughout first several years it was same worthless and useless land. I wouldn't call this an investment it's more like a lottery.

On the other hand florida real estate market in general was appreciating by 15-20% in last few years which is very decent level of returns.

[Josef Gabcik]

I am investing a modest amount of savings in funds. I don't invest in stocks directly because don't have that much time to track situation on the markets. However I do follow business news and would like to think of myself as an educated customer of investment products.

Right now i am translating some information about the hedge funds from german to russian, i found it in the magazin "Stocks Culture". I didn't know much about this art of funds, but i heard that they are the best possibility for the safery investements . Of course the profit, that you are geting

is not so big, like with investements directly in stocks. But the managers of the hedge funds have a bigger choise, because they can invest not only in stocks, it can be some privat equity or raw materials and another things that you can buy on the world markets.

It happened when goverment started auctioning off some of its lands

Can you tell me, in wich year was this auctioning? I've never hear about it (and my friend too). And why the government of the us did it?

Edited March 29, 2007 by Josef Gabcik

[TSP]

Right now i am translating some information about the hedge funds from german to russian, i found it in the magazin "Stocks Culture". I didn't know much about this art of funds, but i heard that they are the best possibility for the safery investements . Of course the profit, that you are geting

is not so big, like with investements directly in stocks. But the managers of the hedge funds have a bigger choise, because they can invest not only in stocks, it can be some privat equity or raw materials and another things that you can buy on the world markets.

Can you tell me, in wich year was this auctioning? I've never hear about it (and my friend too). And why the government of the us did it?

I'm investing through so called mutual funds. They don't allow to invest directly in stocks, instead selling shares in portfolios of stocks. This portfolios are designed to have different levels of risk and corollary different levels of return to suit all kinds of investors. Some of this portfolios are centered on particular economy sector or particular part of global market or have particular investment strategy. The choise is really diverse. Such funds allow investors to save on brokerage commisions and enjoy market advantages of large institutional investors. While there are no gurantees of the return on investment there are strict rules in place for mutual fund managers as to what kind of operations they can perform with stocks, shielding investors from unscrupulous rip off masters.

Hedge funds, as we understand it in US, are totally different beasts. They are the least regulated invetment companies which allows them to pursuit all kinds of investment schemes. They are very risky and are open only to rich investors. They are also highly profitable, sort of.

It's state goverment that sold the lands and they do it for different reasons, some of them political. Auctions happen all the time, some years more land are sold than others. The case that I know about happened during 80s and the owner benefited from rapidly growing Florida economy and Disney World expansion.