NAGORNO-KARABAGH: A TRANSCEND OUTCOME PERSPECTIVE

[HOB]

NAGORNO-KARABAGH: A TRANSCEND OUTCOME PERSPECTIVE

by Johan Galtung

10th of May 2004

[1] Diagnosis. Nagorno-Karabagh, a former enclave in Soviet Azerbaijan, is a de facto independent Republic (NKR) declared 2/9 December 1991. NKR has all characteristics of an independent state--flag, army, war of liberation (1989-94, ceasefire on 12/5), history, church, parliament and president democratically elected, internal law and order--except de jure international recognition.

Some see NKR as a territorial quarrel between Azerbaijan and Armenia; making the same mistake as with Israel-Egypt, Croatia- Serbia, Sri Lanka Tamils and Sinhalas, Northern Ireland Republicans and Unionists, forgetting Palestine, Krajna-Slavonia, Muslims, and a neither-one-nor-the-other majority. Of course, this reduction of a conflict with 3 parties to only 2 was always in the interest of somebody. And 2 always look more easy to handle than 3. So, there are often strong forces against any recognition of a third party.

In this conflict NKR pleads self-determination/independence, and Azerbaijan pleads territorial integrity, based on NK as enclave in Soviet Azerbaijan 1922-1992, and uti possidetis. The NKR and Armenian claim is based on centuries of Armenian settlement, even if not as independent state (like Slovenia in former Yugoslavia.) To play international law against NKR would reflect badly on the law, also given the discrimination of Armenians by Azerbaijan, the 1988 killing of Armenians in Sumgait near Baku, and Azeri targeting of civilians, churches and monuments during the war.

[2] Prognosis. This no peace, no war could last long as any alternative may seem worse to some. Armenians, like Serbs, are strong, but Azerbaijan, like Croatia, may launch an Operation Storm with a US-trained army, or like in Kosovo/a even a NATO operation.

Crucial in the equation may be NKR ability to project a war with no capitulation, no ceasefire, but continued struggle for their beloved land, violently with paramilitary forces, and nonviolently, rather than refugee and IDP status; that peace is the only end.

[3] Therapy. Countries with national interest agendas related to the region, like a history of genocide or oil, will always be suspected of not being neutral. The alternative is mediation by intergovernmental organizations such as the UN, OSCE and its Minsk Group, Council of Europe, the European Union; and individuals.

The road to peace is paved with self-determination for NKR and ultimately with independence. After a short while the world will accommodate NKR (population 150,000?) as a member of the UN, as it has to Andorra (66,000), Liechtenstein and Monaco (both 32,000), San Marino (25,000), Palau (18,000) and Nauru (11,000).

But it is also paved with Azeri interest in refugee return, and Armenian interest in integration. Since these are legitimate goals work should proceed on all three tracks. The independence has to be earned, and a process of return--when, where, how, how many to be negotiated--will earn NKR respect. NKR should not fall into the trap of loading the refugee burden on Azerbaijan. In this complicated process high level trilateral cooperation Armenia-NKR- Azerbaijan is indispensable, starting at individual and NGO level.

Parallel with the work for independence, NKR could also keep alive the idea of Caucasian integration as a Georgia-Azerbaijan- NKR-Armenia community. The possibility of European Union membership for all four, with Turkey membership as a land bridge, is also a future scenario. All these processes should be seen as complementary, not as competitive. Peace in Caucasus is vulnerable and needs multiple bonds, with NKR independence as common factor.

NKR, peaceful, beautiful and spiritual, is ideal for trek and third age tourism, once the Azerbaijan-Turkey blockade is lifted. In a peaceful Caucasian community the whole region could blossom.

http://www.transcend.org/

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TRANSCEND - эта организация по мирному разрешению конфликтов, и ее возглавляет знаменитейший Johan Galtung, основатель многих теорий по трансформации конфликтов, также как и теорий direct and structural violence.

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