Shirakatsi

ay qezi prognoz!!!!!!!!!! lav eli txeq jan, anhavanakan baner eq xosum. Azerbaijan prevratistsya v abichnuy neftyannuyu stranu. Daxodi budut dastatochni balshiye. Tak budet let 20. Patom, yeshyo let 10 budut ispolzovat dolari na neftyannix fondax, tak chto, nam ne nuzhno "bespakoyitsya" za nix, u nix vsyo buduet narmalno, kak v drugix neftyannix gasudarstv, gde nasileniye ne balshoye. Vi inadga gavarite pra Nigeria ili Angola, no zabivayet, chto tam nasileniye agromnoye. V Nigerii 120-150 millionov lyudey zhivut. Yesli v Armenii i Gruzii vsyo budet xarasho, vsyo ravno v blizhayshiy 15 let, VVP na dushu nasileniye v Azer-ane budet minimum 2 raza vishe chem u nas i u Gruzii. maglo bi bit v 3 raza vishe, no "Semya" ne pazvolit, dlya Semyi eto istoricheskaya vazmozhnost prevratitsya v adin iz samix bagatix kla-ov na planete. A v dalgasrocnoy perspektive (kagda nas mozhet i ne budet ), let cherez 40-50, uroven zhizni v Armenii, Gruzii, i Azer-ane, apyat stanut adinakovimi, v paryadke 35-40 pracentov at amerikanskovo urovnya.

ya dumayu stroitelstvo yeshyo ne nachali, tak chto yeshyo ne pozdno. I yeshyo, Iran stroit 120sm trubu da granici s Armenii, chto znachit chto Iran chitayet etu trubu tranzitnoy A krome tavo, s 2007-8-ovo goda Gruzia mozhet pereyti na iAzer-skiy gaz, chto znachit, chto Rossiye ne budet vigodna atpravit gaz v Armeniyu pa lgotnim cenam. Tak, chto, yesli u nashevo pravitelstvo yest mazgi, to ani dalzhni panyat, chto v budushem mi ves gaz vazmyom at Irana, a eto v paryadke 4 milliradov kubametrov v god. I vabshe, netu logiki v tom, chto Rossia atpravila v etot region gaz, kagda zdes yest agromniye zapasi gaza.

vabshe to etot "inostranec" armyanin, da yeshyo i yerevanskovo razliva

1. v 2003-om gadu srednaya cena nefti bila v paryadke 30-i dolarov, to ist paluchayetsya ne 5.6 miliardov, a 3 miliarda 2. viruchka at pradazhi nefti v Azer-ne raspredelyayutsta sleduyushim obrazom (priblizitelno) BP paluchayet 15 dolarov at barel-ya. Yesli cen privishayet etot pakazatel, to etot chast astayotsya Azer-nu. Sakzhem, yesli cen 30 dolarov, Azer-an paluchayet 15 dolarov, a yesli cena 40 dolarov, tro Azer-an paluchayet 25 dolarov. 3. To chto paluchayet Azerbaijan, ne polnostyu idyot v byudget. Delo v tom, chto u nix yest stabiliziaconniy fond. yesli ani pragnazirovali skazhem 30 dolarov, a paluchilsya 50, to kazhdiy lichniy 20 dolarov paydyot v etot fond. Seychas u nix na etom fonde 1 miliard dolarov. 4. tak chto i nix budut sleduyushiye pakazateli. skazhen 0.7 mln barel kazhdiy den, cena 40 dolarov, 15 BP, 25 Azer-nu, Azer-an paluchit 6 milirdov v god, iz nix 3 milirada v byudget, 3 millarda v Fond 5. kagda ceni upadut nizhe 25-30 dolarov, to Azer-an nachnyot istratit to chto nakopleno v Fonde. A yesli ceni budut derzhatsya vishe 30-i to ix fond budet rasti, a nachnut ani tratit eti dengi kagda neft konchitsya cherz let 25-30. 6. tak chto s pomoshyu etovo fonda, ani budut imet neftyanniye daxodi ne 25-30 let, a na 40-45 let. no yesho nado pasmatret smogut li ani skladivat dengi v Fonde. V nachale vse strani xatyat delyat etovo, no apetit vlastey balshoy, i ne kazhdomu udayotsya. Tolko adna stran smog sdelat eto- Norvegia. u nix da six por agromniye dengi na neftyannix fondax.

druzya, vabshe-to zhal chto slavniy gorod Alek-pola uzhe net. Kamunisticheskiy bardak abernulsya polnim kashmarom dlya nas, asobenno Alek-polcov. za period 1920-1950 gorod vabshe ne razvivalsya, i bila balshaya emigracia. A to chto pastroili v 1970-1980 gadu akazalsya aruzhiyem massovovo parazheniya. da rebyata, mi pateryali Gyumri-Aleksandrapol. bilo vremya kagda etot gorod bil Armyanskim gorodom N1, 95 pracentov bilo armyani-xrsitiani, slazhilsya unikalniy garadskaya obshina. teper vsyo eto uzhe pateryano. Chto budet posle, ya ne znayu. No dumayu chto let cherez 10-15 nachnyotsya nastayashaya vazrazhdeniye

etot dom pastroyen v Alek-polskom stile, no interesno, chto eto novoye zdaniye, bilo pastroyeno 3-4 goda nazad. vabshe to xarasho, chto v Gyumri saxranyayutsya arxitekturniye tradicii, ne kak v Yerevane. Zdes v yerevane splashnoy arxitekturniy bardak. estexi harustneri sarqats tner@ irants nayats "portapari" pes grehik kereva.

Vahe jan, ne 2000, a 1500-1550

privet hayrenakicner jan! ya tolko chto uvidel etot topic. ya tozhe iz Gyumri, radilsya v 1976-om, uchilsya v shkole N12, okolo 10-harkani. kstati, vchera bil v Gyumri, no ne uspel v Poloz Mukuch-e pabivat. s 1992-ovo goda zhivu v Yerevane. sa el im "introduction" -@ themayin

sorry, ya naverno bil neyasen. Ya xatel uznat, chto kankretno vas interesuyet, Macro-management, platyozhniy balans, monetary policy (vrode etovvo http://www.edrc.am/user_files/136.pdf ), ili finasoviye rinki, banki i tamu padobnoye.

macro?

Please tell me what specifically you did not like in x-rate paper or in EDRC as a whole? thanks

adin seryozniy vapros: ti kak finansist interesuyeshsya ili kak economist? yesli kak economist, ete pa-interesneye i predstavlyayu kakaya pomosh tebe nuzhna a ti v Armenii uchissya?

Проблем чка, просто вор хоск@ политикаица гнум, серакан моментнер@ jнjвумен, эт нормала) Я даже рада, потому что, когда только по высказываниям можно сделать вывод, что это точно женщина, а может ещё и блондинка, это далеко не комплимент))) ←

когда я была маленькой девочкой (конец XX в., если кто не в курсе ), но к вопросам о территории это не относится, они там жили испокон веков и это есть факт, мсье Дюк!) ←

sorry, yes nor haskaca vor knoj het em xosum, neroxutyun. hay-rusakan haraberutyunner@ shat xarn en, u iskakanits charzhi vor menq da qnnarkenq. Bayc im kartsiqov hay azg@ miferov e aprum, u miferits mek@ rusakan ognutyunn e. Ethe du asum es vor aranc rusneri Arcax-@ cheinq veradarcni, du viravorum es mer zohvatsneri hishatak@. Inch rusakan zenq? isk thurqer@ karox e amerikakan zenqov ein krvum? isk thurqerin ov er zenq@ talis? Isk ov 1920 thvin thurqeri het hayeri hern anitses. Hyly vercru u "balshaya Savetsakay enciklopedian" (1950) karda 1920 thvi depqeri masin, tes inch en grum Rusastani mets exbayr Atathurqi masin, u vonc en uraxanum, vor thurqern u bolshevik axperner@ "imperialist" hayeri haxits ekan. yes shat baner karox em asel. petq e tesne the inch "net" (zut) shahuyth e mer azg@ unecel rusneri kataxi barekamutyunic. da bard harc e, dra hamar el charzhi yerkar vichel. isk leninakani ch@ verakangnum@ thox liner chariqi phoqraguyn@. yes inqs gyumreci em. Husov em irar haskacanq. harganqners

e heto. chukchi nezavisimiye seychas? a tvayo sravneniye s Yerevanom ne umestno! u tebya yest danniye kto zhili na teretoriyi Abxazii do Stalina? tam razve ne bilo gruzin? ya gavaryu, chto Galskiy rayon nado vernut gruzinam, eto moye mneniye i prashu na sleduyushiy raz ne sravnit Armeniyu s Abxazami. I kstati, u menya semya dyadyi v Abxazii zhivyot, bliz Gagri, selo Kolxida, Samvelyani. Ya dumayu at Leselidze da Suxumi mozhno astavit abxazam, a astalnoye vernut nazad. Na eto predlozhneiye prashu ne abizhatsya, tolko abxazi i gruzini mogut abizhatsya na menya, no tolko ne ti

Ay axper jan, es inch es grel? Rusastan@ es amen inchi het inch kap uni? lav e chasecir Shvedneri hoxern e Gone Ajaria-i hamar chgreir.... Amoth e, hayers el, vracinern el, phoqr azger en, voronq tanjvel en u tanjvum en irents mets harevanneri dzerqum. Isk du texyak es, vor Stalin@ Vrastani mi mas@ 1921 thvin tvec Thurqiayin?

I yeshyo, ne zabivayte pra Eurosoyuz. Turciya budet v Eurosoyuze v 2015-2017 godu, a Armenia tagda uzhe budet stranoy kandidatim. Armenia ne budet platit Rossiyi za to, chtob ana axranyala svayi granici s Eurosoyuzom, eto glupo. Dagavor a rossiyskix bazax zakanchivayetsya v 2022, no ya dumayu chto let 7-8 da etovo russkiye v Armenii ne astanutsya.

Pastepenno Rossiya budet staratsya perenesti finansovoyu chast saxraneniya baz na Armeniyu. Eto uzhe praisxodit, i v dalneyshom budet usilivatsya. I tagda let cherez 8-10 mi sami paprosim im uyti. I Rossiya uydut, patamu chto eti bazi smisla ne budut imet

bez vayennix baz v Gruzii, bazi v Armeniyi balshovo znacheniya ne budut imet.dlya Rossiyi

Kadji, tebe ne nadayelo zdes vsyaku chepuxu nesti. U tebya inagda bivayut zatmeniya uma. tebe chto etot Velichko dvayurodniy brat? malo russkix skotov pisala lozh i pra gruzinax i pra armyan? chto, russkiye dlya tebya avtaritet? a tvoy Cavcavadze mozhet i dlya vas xaroshiy gruzin, no on yavno bil fashistom. to chto on pishet, paxozh na propagandu 3-ovo Reyxa. Hitler tozhe bil xaroshim nemcom dlya balshinstvo nemcov. ya tebye skazhu, chto tebe luchshe atvetit nashu kritiku v adres vashey cerkvi a ne pastavit zdes stati nacionalistov i lyubimchikov vragov Armenii, to ist turkov. Slushay Kaji, ya sam slishal kak vash Katholikos skazal, chto "...nesmatrya na to chto cerkov bila armyanskoy, ana bila pastroyena 200 let nazad na fundamentax razvalennovo gruzinskovo cerkvi, znachit cerkov dolzhen bit nash.." Razve eto slava bazhenstvennovo chelaveka? itdi i uznavay detali etovo cerkovnovo dela, patom prixadi syuda i abyasni nam chto u vas tam praisxodut. A to nadayelo mne vashi Velichko s Chavchavadze, saxrani eto dlya vashevo vnutrennevo ispolzivaniay. Privet

Kaji, Ya ne balshoy specialist v etom vaprose, magu i ashibitsya. no ya znayu chto v apredelyonnoye vremya nasha cerkov bila razdroblennoy, bili 4 vetvi, Kostandinopolskiy, Echmidazinskiy, Gandzasarskiy i kazhetysa Kilikiyskiy. Yedinstyva ne bila. Na schyot Albanskovo, ili Gandsasarskovo katolikosta, ka ya uzhe skazal imya "Albanskoye" nichevo ne znachila, eto bila Armyankaya Grigorianskaya Cerkov, tam pisali na armyanskom, sluzheniya bili na armyanskom nachinaya s 8-9-va veka. Xristiani aalbanci bili asimilirovani nami davno-davno. Yesli tebe interesuyet etot vapros s tochki zreniye nineshnoy politike, to znay, chto etu kartu razigrivayut azerskiye tyurki. No eto smeshno, ne bilo ne kakoy albanskoy cerkvi, bila armyanskaya apostolskaya cerkov s Katolikosom v Gandzasare. Prestav sebe, Francuskuyu Navaru, kagda Navare bila malenkaya sasedka balshoy Francii i patom navari asimilirovvalis s francuzami, i imya s ethnograficheskovo stalo geograficheskaya. tak sluchilos is s 25 % -ami alban. Astalniye dazhe geografiyu ne saxranili.

Kaji, nekagda ne slishal, chto Ripsime mog bit pastroennim v 9-om veke. I cerkov ne paxozh na 9-iy vek, tam savsem drugiye formi. Ripsime, Gayane, Zvartnots, eto 7-oy vek, kagda Xristianstvo stalo ochen silnim v regione, a Sasanidi ustupili mnogo armyanskix zemel Vizantiycam. Tagda Imperia stalo pamagat armyanam, dazhe tagda eshyo nadeyilis chto armyani pereydut na Qalkedonstvo. A pra Gandzasar, eto "pravakacionniy" vapros i ne savsem nauchniy. Pravda v tom, chto Arcax i Utiq iznachalno (6-3 veka B.C) bili vne armyanskovo pranstranstva, i papali tuda v 2 veke B.C. a kagda vishli iz Armenii v 5-om veke A.D, tam uzhe abrazavalos dva vida albancov, te kto bili armenizirovani, i te kto astalos albancami. Eta vtaraya grupa, v pasledstvii prevratilos v musulman kagda priexali arabi, a ta grupa katoraya bila pro-armyanskaya, stala Grigorianskimi xristianamai i v pasledstvii pachti-armyanami. Tak chto uzhe v 12-13 vekax, termin Albania, (kstati, tagda uzhe Albania nekto ne gavaril, vse gavarili Aghvanq, na armaynskom), astalos tolko kak geograficheskiy termin, a ne ethnograficheskiy. Vse zhiteli etovo kraya gavarili na armyanskom, pismennost bila armyanskaya, vera- Grigorianskaya. tak chto tagda pastroili Gandzasar, raznici mezhdu armyanami i albancami uzhe ne bilo, mi ix uzhe davno asimilirovali. uzhe 1000 let kak eti nasledniki "albancov" sebya nazivayut 'hay-qristonya". A astalnix albancov, ne xristianskix, v pasledstvii asimilirovali turki seljuki i oghuzi. skazhem 25 pracentov nam, 75 pracentov k tyurkam. dumayu gruzinam tozhe nemnozhko albanskovo nasledstviaya dastalos. A akanchetalnaya asimiliacia pra-vnukov alban, praizashlo v nachale 19 veka, kagda mnogo vastochnix armyan, katoriye deportirovalis v Persiyu v nachale 17 veka priexali v Arcax i smeshalis "aborigenami" armyano-albanskovo tolka, i stali na 99 pracentov armyanami.

Kadji, xaroshiye veshi pakazivayesh! Ochen acheviden pravaslavniy sled!